THE onus on the central bank to keep the economy growing, and prevent the jobless rate spurting higher, just got heavier.
Faced with a still-turbulent global economy, which has hit forecasts for tax revenues and trimmed domestic growth expectations, the federal government turned the fiscal screw even tighter with another round of savings in its mid-year economic and fiscal outlook (MYEFO) on Monday.
But Treasurer Wayne Swan is doggedly sticking to his aim of returning a budget surplus in 2012/13, and at least over the next three financial years, albeit slightly smaller than predicted five months ago.
One economist described it as a "crazy-brave goal" of delivering a surplus this financial year, despite delivering a whopping $43.7 billion deficit in 2011/12, the third-largest deficit in Australia's history.
However, at $1.1 billion rather than $1.5 billion, the predicted surplus has become even more wafer-thin.
The surplus prediction comes while domestic economic growth is expected to shift slightly below trend, commonly seen at 3.25 per cent, but the jobless rate is seen at 5.5 per cent both this financial year and next, and only just above where it is now.
That suggests the government is relying on the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to do the heavy lifting.
The chance of a Melbourne Cup Day rate cut at the RBA's board meeting in November has grown that more certain, even before key inflation numbers for the September quarter are released on Wednesday.
And beyond November, financial markets are now fully pricing in a further two 25-basis-point reductions by mid-2013, which would take the cash rate to 2.5 per cent.
Business believes it is also doing the heavy lifting in helping return the budget to surplus through changes to tax payments from quarterly to monthly, raising $8 billion.
That said, and despite the brouhaha over the mining tax, the revenue take from the super profits from iron-ore and coal miners has become even smaller amid falling commodity prices.
The minerals resource rent tax will now rake in $9.1 billion instead of $13.4 billion over the forward estimates.
And this is clearly only an estimate, because the 30 per cent impost only started on July 1, and the first receipts were only being paid on Monday.
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